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Prediction for CME (2024-05-03T02:48:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2024-05-03T02:48Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/30409/-1
CME Note: A faint CME with narrow brighter front with filamentary structures (likely the bulk) and a wider fainter but slower front (likely the shock). The source is the X1.6 class flare (N26E05) from AR 3663 peaking at 2024-05-03T02:22Z and an eruption with a faint narrow ejecta seen in AIA 193 directed mostly towards the NE and a faint dimming mostly NE of the active region and post-eruptive arcades seen in AIA 193. Arrival signature: gradual CME arrival signature (likely a flank impact/glancing blow) which on 2024-05-06 is followed by the onset of a high speed stream. There is no shock but a steady growth in magnetic field to 16nT on 2024-05-06, accompanied by rotation of all 3 magnetic field components, with a prolonged bout of negative Bz (below 10 nT) on the evening of 2024-05-05. The ICME signature also includes an initial build up of ion density and temperature, followed by drops in both parameters.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2024-05-05T11:30Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2024-05-05T09:00Z
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 60.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 4.0 - 7.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (BoM)
Prediction Method Note:

Please enter the following information for your prediction:
BoM ENLIL settings: 
ENLIL version: 2.7
Grid: 256x30x90
Resolution: low
Ambient settings: 
Ejecta settings: 
WSA version: 2.2
GONG: 

CME input parameters
Time at 21.5Rs boundary: 03/0747
Radial velocity (km/s): 806
Longitude (deg): 14E
Latitude (deg): 23N
Half-angular width (deg): 44

Notes:

Lead Time: 37.58 hour(s)
Difference: 2.50 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Duty Forecaster (ASWFC) on 2024-05-03T21:55Z

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